Evaluation and Projection of Temperature Extremes over China Based on CMIP5 Model

Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model datasets from CMIP5. Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data, multi-model weighted ensemble is capable of reproducing the 8 temperature extreme indices and 20-year return values of annual maximum/minimum temperatures. The time correlation coefficients of all the 8 indices between multi-model ensemble and the reanalysis can reach a significance level of 0.10. The spatial correlation coefficient of 20-year return level of annual maximum/minimum temperatures is greater than 0.98. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, more extreme warm events and less cold events are expected over China in multi-model ensemble. By the middle of the 21st century, the heat wave duration index will be multiplied 2.6 times. At the end of the 21st century, the cold wave duration index will decrease 71%, and the 20-year return value will increase 4°C in parts of China for the maximum/minimum temperatures.CitationYao, Y., Y. Luo, J.-B. Huang, 2012: Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China based on CMIP5 model. Adv. Clim. Change Res.,3(4), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2012.00179.