Impact of riser reconstructions on estimation of secular variation in rates of strike–slip faulting: Revisiting the Cherchen River site along the Altyn Tagh Fault, NW China

Slip rates are heavily contested for many of the first-order strike–slip faults within the Indo–Asian collision zone. Rates determined geodetically are generally lower than those reported using reconstructions of offset landforms, and it is unclear if this discrepancy reflects true secular variation in slip history, systematic errors in interpretation, or both. Here I examine the methods used to derive slip rates from reconstructions of displaced fluvial risers, and show that such rates are subject to potentially important uncertainties that have largely been overlooked. Review of published data demonstrates that the slip rate can vary by a factor of 1.2 to 5 for the same site, depending on whether the reconstruction uses the age of the upper or lower terrace for the initiation of riser offset. To reduce this epistemic uncertainty, I have developed six geomorphic indices that can be used to identify the most accurate end-member reconstruction: (1) comparison of riser offset with inset channel width; (2) similarity of riser and tread displacements; (3) morphological analysis of the scarp profile; (4) riser deflection in plan view; (5) diachroneity of terrace abandonment; and (6) whether riser crests or bases yield the slip vector. Without the use of these geomorphic observations the epistemic uncertainty associated with current methods for determining slip rate from offset fluvial risers is likely to be so large that there is no resolvable discrepancy between the GPS and geologic rates within the Indo–Asian collision zone. Application of three of these indices to new field mapping of the Cherchen He (River) Site (∼ 86.4°E) along the central Altyn Tagh Fault yields a revised slip rate of 9.4 ± 2.3 mm/yr, equivalent within error to the rates previously derived from GPS and paleoseismic studies. Although reinterpretation of published data from the Sulamu Tagh site (∼ 87.4°) is consistent with this revised rate, additional work is needed to reconcile this result with some of the rates reported near Aksay (∼ 94°E).