Assessment of hydrological changes in the Nile River due to the construction of Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia

This paper assesses impact of the Renaissance Dam on Ethiopia; on the Nile discharge ultimately reaches Egypt downstream. The Landsat-8 satellite images of 2013 were obtained and interpreted to identify locations for the construction sites for the Renaissance Dam. Then the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data were obtained and processed to create a digital elevation model (DEM) for the Blue Nile upstream areas that will be submerged. Different scenarios for the dams’ heights and resulting storages were simulated to estimate the resulting abstraction of the Blue Nile flows until completion of the project and the annual losses due to evaporation thereafter. The current site (506 m asl) for the Renaissance Dam allows the creation of a 100 m deep reservoir with a total storage of 17.5 km3; overflows will occur at that lake’s level (606 m asl) from the north western part of the developed lake into Rosaires downstream. Construction of the spillway dam to control the overflow area can allow the creation of a 180 m deep lake that store up to 173 km3 in a lake that will cover 3130 km2. The analysis of Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) suggests that the variation of total annual rainfall could reach 20%, thus the resulting hydrological fluctuations could affect the estimated filling time, the operational functions and discharge downstream. The negative hydrological impacts of the Renaissance Dam will increase by increasing the height of its spillway dam, as increasing the storage capacity could affect the strategic storage for the reservoirs in Egypt and Sudan. It is strongly recommended that an agreement should be reached to compromise the storage capacities and water supplies for all dams on the Nile to thoroughly satisfy the necessary needs.