Modelling of Coulomb stress changes during the great (Mw = 8.8) 1906 Colombia-Ecuador earthquake

Six alternative models of slip distribution during the 1906 Esmeraldas (Mw = 8.8) megathrust earthquake are used to compute Coulomb stress changes on two types of specific faults and onto optimal strike-slipe faults along the Colombia-Ecuador Pacific region. Coulomb stress changes are in the range −0.5–0.5 MPa projected on specific faults varies spatially depending on target fault configuration (dip and sense of motion): Slip along low-angle reverse faults would be inhibited whereas slip along near-vertical strike-slip faults would be facilitated in the southern rupture region and inhibited in the northern rupture region. The patterns of Coulomb stress changes on optimal strike-slip faults located on the landward side of the 1906 rupture is not strongly dependent on the regional stress tensor, suggests that motion along many faults and fault segments might be facilitated, and exhibits good spatial correlation with shallow seismicity. The modelled 1906 Esmeraldas rupture is compared to the recent 2010 Mw = 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake and the results may aid in improving current hazard estimates and degree of preparedness in the Colombia-Ecuador Pacific region.