One-dimensional numerical modeling of the long-term morphodynamic evolution of a tidally-dominated estuary: The Lower Fly River (Papua New Guinea)

We use a one-dimensional morphodynamic model to analyze the long-term evolution of the lower reaches of the Fly River, Papua New Guinea, from the Everill Junction to the delta mouth. The model shows how the break in the exponential trend of river width triggers deposition, thus producing a tidal region characterized by a higher bed elevation with respect to the river-dominated one. Numerical simulations indicate that the river attains a dynamic equilibrium configuration in which the amount of sediment entering upstream is flushed seaward. A sensitivity analysis is performed, in which the effect of varying solid discharge, tidal harmonics, and initial conditions is discussed. The model shows that an equilibrium configuration results from a delicate balance between the aggrading effect associated with channel divergence (acting mainly during neap tide and at slack water) and the opposite effect of tidal flushing driven by residual water discharge. A physically meaningful morphodynamic equilibrium occurs only for a small range of values of sediment discharge prescribed at the upstream boundary. In particular, an increase in sediment discharge leads to aggradation, while a decrease triggers extensive scour and a deepening of the estuary.