Study of the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and the economic growth of Russia based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve

Russia is typical of the extensive economic development pattern. Its economic growth greatly relies on natural resources, especially fossil fuels, which can lead to large quantities of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, which is based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, we systematically estimated the economy-related GHG emissions in Russia over the period of 1998-2013 in terms of energy consumption emissions, industrial process emissions, animal husbandry emissions, and fugitive emissions. The proportion and variations in the different emission categories were analyzed in the Russian context. The inverted U-shaped relationship between the GDP per capita and economy-related GHG emissions per capita was tested, and the results supported the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis under a business-as-usual scenario. Our estimation indicated that Russia will reach its turning point in 10 years if its economic growth rate remains stable. Since optimizing the energy structure and improving the energy efficiency and changing industrial structure will have a positive effect on GHG emission reduction in Russia, the Russian government needs to guide its economic development to reach its EKC turning point through the implementation of effective policies, instead of waiting for the turning point. This study analyzed the impact of the economic development on GHG emissions in Russia and will serve as a reference for countries and regions that are at this stage of the economic transformation process.