Renewable transitions and the net energy from oil liquids: A scenarios study

- Future available net energy from all oil liquids is estimated.
- Several models for the evolution of EROI with time are used in our forecasts.
- The amount of crude oil energy required for RES deployment is estimated.
- The rate of RES deployment necessary to compensate net energy decay is calculated.

We use the concept of Energy Return On energy Invested (EROI) to calculate the amount of the available net energy that can be reasonably expected from World oil liquids during the next decades (till 2040). Our results indicate a decline in the available oil liquids net energy from 2015 to 2040. Such net energy evaluation is used as a starting point to discuss the feasibility of a Renewable Transition (RT). To evaluate the maximum rate of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) development for the RT, we assume that, by 2040, the RES will achieve a power of 11 TW (1012 Watt). In this case, by 2040, between 10 and 20% of net energy from liquid hydrocarbons will be required. Taking into account the oil liquids net energy decay, we calculate the minimum annual rate of RES deployment to compensate it in different scenarios. Our study shows that if we aim at keeping an increase of 3% of net energy per annum, an 8% annual rate of RES deployment is required. Such results point out the urgent necessity of a determined policy at different levels (regional, national and international) favoring the RT implementation in the next decades.