A multivariate-based conflict prediction model for a Brazilian freeway

- We developed a conflict prediction model from traffic data of a Brazilian freeway.
- Variables selection for the model is based on a multivariate framework.
- A Linear Discriminant Analysis model was developed to estimate conflict occurrence.
- Results indicate that 87% of the conflicts are correctly predicted with the model.

Real-time collision risk prediction models relying on traffic data can be useful in dynamic management systems seeking at improving traffic safety. Models have been proposed to predict crash occurrence and collision risk in order to proactively improve safety. This paper presents a multivariate-based framework for selecting variables for a conflict prediction model on the Brazilian BR-290/RS freeway. The Bhattacharyya Distance (BD) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) are applied to a dataset comprised of variables that potentially help to explain occurrence of traffic conflicts; the parameters yielded by such multivariate techniques give rise to a variable importance index that guides variables removal for later selection. Next, the selected variables are inserted into a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) model to estimate conflict occurrence. A matched control-case technique is applied using traffic data processed from surveillance cameras at a segment of a Brazilian freeway. Results indicate that the variables that significantly impacted on the model are associated to total flow, difference between standard deviation of lanes' occupancy, and the speed's coefficient of variation. The model allowed to asses a characteristic behavior of major Brazilian's freeways, by identifying the Brazilian typical heterogeneity of traffic pattern among lanes, which leads to aggressive maneuvers. Results also indicate that the developed LDA-PCA model outperforms the LDA-BD model. The LDA-PCA model yields average 76% classification accuracy, and average 87% sensitivity (which measures the rate of conflicts correctly predicted).