Developing a framework for dynamic risk assessment using Bayesian networks and reliability data

In this context, the paper presents a case study of the quantitative risk assessment of a process unit using BN. The different steps of the development of the BN are detailed, including: translation of a Bowtie into a skeletal BN, modification of the skeletal BN to incorporate reliability data, and insertion of equipment failure evidence into the BN for dynamic modeling. In addition, an overview of PULSE is presented. The outcomes of the dynamic modeling of the BN with real time insertion of evidence are discussed and recommendation for the framework for a dynamic risk assessment tool are made.