Modelling approaches for greenhouse gas emissions projections from the waste sector

The Mitigation and Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) program is a collaboration amongst developing countries to establish the evidence base for long-term transition to robust economies that are carbon efficient and climate resilient. The program endeavours to contribute towards ambitious climate change mitigation, aligning economic development with policy and planning. This case study paper describes the baseline and mitigation analyses conducted in four countries in Latin America, namely Peru, Colombia, Chile and Brazil, for the solid waste and wastewater sub-sectors. The paper provides an overview of the approaches used in the individual countries, a description of the modelling framework, the drivers of emissions considered, data used, main assumptions and a summary of how mitigation approaches were considered in the analyses. Across all four of the reviewed countries, the generation of waste and wastewater was linked to population, and in some cases GDP, with the emissions determined from the volumes of waste/wastewater treated via different routes. However, the different countries' models varied quite substantially in terms of the IPCC guidelines followed, extent of country-specific information included and the number and type of mitigation actions investigated. The availability of information in the different countries provides a limitation to the analysis which can be conducted. A greater degree of resolution in information and more locally-specific information will lead to results that are better representative of the actual emissions from a particular country.