کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5019500 1468203 2017 27 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Schedule risk analysis for new-product development: The GERT method extended by a characteristic function
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی مکانیک
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Schedule risk analysis for new-product development: The GERT method extended by a characteristic function
چکیده انگلیسی
Schedule risk analysis plays a key role in new product development. A typical project-schedule model using the Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program, Evaluation, and Review Technique (PERT) falls short in many practical situations. Instead, a graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) has been recommended for its ability to address probability branches and loops. This paper introduces a GERT model based on a characteristic function and designs its numerical solution. First, an inversion formula is applied to derive the probability distribution of the completion time of a product development. Second, to address the implications of a due date, a novel measure of schedule risk is introduced to give a view of both loss and probability. Third, an elasticity analysis is used to identify the network parameters that facilitate the control of schedule risk. A case study of new product development in a high-technology enterprise is presented to demonstrate the proposed methods. The approach will be useful in schedule risk analysis across several problem domains including engineering, environment, management, economic development, etc.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Reliability Engineering & System Safety - Volume 167, November 2017, Pages 464-473
نویسندگان
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