Fear and trust: How risk perceptions of avian influenza affect Chinese consumers' demand for chicken

- We quantify the impact of H7N9 bird flu on chicken demand and consumer WTP in China.
- Like fear, the impact of distrust was negative for consumption.
- Stronger consumer heterogeneity existed in cities with higher number of incidences.
- The sheer mentioning of H7N9 has a more important and negative effect.

This article quantifies the impact of H7N9 bird flu on chicken demand and consumer willingness to pay (WTP) in China. We measure risk perception, fear and trust against actual reduction in consumption and stated change in WTP for safe chicken between 2012 and 2013. Through a survey conducted in each year on the same Chinese urban consumers, we found that the consumption of chicken never increased after the emergence of H7N9 in 2013, and WTP for safe chicken did not necessarily increase relative to generic risks associated with consuming chicken in 2012. Factors such as the fear of H7N9's spreading, the impact of distrust (especially the distrust in government) enhanced the deviation of consumption and WTP; and the sheer mentioning of H7N9 is more important and negative than whether it was associated with a risk-perception reducing or risk-perception elevating message given to consumers.