Will the decline of efficiency in China's agriculture come to an end? An analysis based on opening and convergence

Using a panel dataset of 31 provinces in China, this paper computes the output-oriented Malmquist productivity indexes and their decomposition in China's agricultural sector over the period 1994-2008. In the second-stage regression, which uses the efficiency change and technical progress rates as dependent variables, we have found an increasing level of “equilibrium” efficiency and a robust convergence in China's agricultural efficiency; the latter has also been enhanced by China's integration into the global economy. Our results imply that the opening of the Chinese economy will end the decline in China's agricultural efficiency at last.