The Enigmas of TFP in China: A meta-analysis

This paper presents a meta-analysis of 5308 observations of total factor productivity growth (TFPG) in China from 150 primary studies to provide some insightful explanations to the controversies about productivity growth in China in the current literature. The main findings include that (1) the mean TFPG of the aggregate economy at the national level in the current literature is only about 2% after 1978, which barely contributes to 20% economic growth; (2) there are three cycles for TFPG after 1978 and each circle lasts about 10 years; (3) sector-specific TFPGs are generally larger than aggregate economic TFPGs; (4) regional disparities of TFPG are significant and specifically the TFPG in East China is higher than that in Central and West China; (5) TFPG after 1978 is in general greater than that before 1978; and (6) peer-review process and paper languages are significantly correlated with TFPG results.

► The mean TFP growth rate in China is only about 2% after 1978. ► TFP barely contributes to 20% of economic growth after 1978. ► There are three cycles for TFP growth after 1978 and each one lasts about ten years. ► Sector-specific TFP growth rates are larger than aggregate-economy ones. ► TFP growth rates in East China are higher than that in Central and West China.