Regional allocation of carbon dioxide abatement in China

This paper aims to identify which provinces will be allocated more (less) of a carbon dioxide reduction burden within China's pledge to reduce its carbon intensity at the Copenhagen conference. Using an extended Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model incorporating an undesirable output, the CO2 reduction potential and marginal abatement costs are estimated for 29 provinces over the period 1995-2007. The CO2 Abatement Capacity Index (ACI) is constructed based on weighted equity and efficiency indexes. We find that there exists a large gap in potential reduction capability and marginal abatement cost among the eastern, middle and western regions. The eastern region has the least inefficient emission and the highest marginal abatement cost, while the western region has the largest potential reduction capability and the lowest marginal cost faced in reducing CO2 emissions. The difference in potential CO2 abatement among the provinces results from different industry structures, energy compositions and degrees of the openness of trade. The ACI ranking and the final allocation among provinces depend on the policy-makers' preferences regarding equity and efficiency.

► 41% of China's CO2 are inefficient excessive emissions. ► Industry composition, energy mix, openness degree affect CO2 abatement potential. ► East has highest marginal cost and least abatement potential, vice versa of West. ► Allocation depends on policy-maker' choice between equity and efficiency.