Projected Increases in Hurricane Damage in the United States: The Role of Climate Change and Coastal Development

The combined forces of climate change and coastal development are anticipated to increase hurricane damage around the globe. Estimating the magnitude of those increases is challenging due to substantial uncertainties about the amount by which climate change will alter the formation of hurricanes and increase sea levels in various locations; and the fact that future increases in property exposure are uncertain, reflecting local, regional and national trends as well as unforeseen circumstances. This paper assesses the potential increase in wind and storm surge damage caused by hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. between now and 2075 using a framework that addresses those challenges. We find that, in combination, climate change and coastal development will cause hurricane damage to increase faster than the U.S. economy is expected to grow. In addition, we find that the number of people facing substantial expected damage will, on average, increase more than eight-fold over the next 60 years. Understanding the concentration of damage may be particularly important in countries that lack policies or programs to provide federal support to hard-hit localities.