Carbon footprint accounting and dynamics and the driving forces of agricultural production in Zhejiang Province, China

- “Integrated Life Cycle Assessment & Environmental Input-Output Model” is developed.
- Agricultural carbon footprint (CF) in Zhejiang, China is measured with the model.
- Energy use and chemical inputs contribute to high carbon intensity in crop farming.
- Mechanization and other factors, form key driving force of agricultural CF dynamics.
- Policy-maker should put more attention on low-carbon agriculture development.

In recent decades, Chinese agriculture has moved towards higher-energy and higher carbon-input systems to increase food production in the country's limited area of croplands. To investigate the environmental impacts of this trend, this study aimed to develop an “Integrated Life Cycle Assessment and Environmental Input-Output Model” (LCA-EIO Model). Using the tri-scope carbon footprint (CF) accounting method, the agricultural carbon footprint of Zhejiang Province, China was calculated for the years from 1997 to 2007, and the categories and structure of carbon emissions sources were analyzed, including patterns of change. In addition, the carbon intensity of crop farming in Zhejiang Province was examined. While an overall reduction in cropland areas has resulted in a substantial decline in direct greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production, the proportion of carbon emissions caused by energy and chemical consumption has increased dramatically, and this consumption has become the primary source of carbon emissions. A decomposition analysis also identified the key driving forces of energy-related CF dynamics, such as the machinery-labor substitution effect. The results of the decomposition analysis can support decision makers in understanding and promoting low-carbon output agriculture.