کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5053457 | 1476511 | 2016 | 8 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Do production managers predict turning points? A directional analysis
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدیران تولید پیش بینی می کنند نقاط تبدیل شود؟ تحلیل مسیریابی
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی
This study evaluates the directional accuracy of production managers' forecasts by using a new market-timing test. By extending the directional analysis to the 4Â ÃÂ 4 case, this study investigates whether Japanese production managers' forecasts correctly predict turning points in production across different industries. This fills a gap in the literature that focused on predicting increase/decrease or acceleration/deceleration using directional analysis of the 2Â ÃÂ 2 case. It also illustrates its merit over the 2Â ÃÂ 2 case. This study shows that majority of the forecasts are not useful in predicting turning points in production; however, they are useful in predicting increase/decrease in production. Our findings suggest that the production managers' forecasts serve as early qualitative information of expansion and contraction on the Japanese economy and their accuracy does not differ by phases of business cycles.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 58, November 2016, Pages 1-8
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 58, November 2016, Pages 1-8
نویسندگان
Yoichi Tsuchiya,