کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5054115 | 1476527 | 2014 | 14 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
آیا آن را در منطقه یورو پرداخت کرده اید؟
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کلمات کلیدی
منطقه ارز بهینه، پیوستن به منطقه یورو، بازار در حال ظهور،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی
Giving up an independent monetary policy and a flexible exchange rate are the key aspects of joining a monetary union. In this paper we analyse how joining the euro area would have affected the Polish business cycle during the recent financial crisis. To this end we construct a small open economy DSGE model and estimate it for Poland and the euro area. Then we run a counterfactual simulation, assuming Poland's euro area accession in 1q2007. The results are striking - volatilities of GDP and inflation increase substantially. In particular, had Poland adopted the euro, GDP growth would have oscillated between â 6% and + 9% (â 9% to + 11% under more extreme assumptions) instead of between 1% and 7%. We conclude that during the analysed period independent monetary policy and, in particular, the flexible exchange rate played an important stabilizing role for the Polish economy.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 41, August 2014, Pages 66-79
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 41, August 2014, Pages 66-79
نویسندگان
MichaÅ Brzoza-Brzezina, Krzysztof Makarski, Grzegorz WesoÅowski,