کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5054176 | 1476525 | 2014 | 9 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Forecasting Canadian inflation: A semi-structural NKPC approach
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
We examine whether alternative versions of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve equation contain useful information for forecasting the inflation process. We notably consider semi-structural specifications which combine, for closed- and open-economy versions of the model, the structural New Keynesian equation with time series features. Estimation and inference are conducted using identification-robust methods to address the concern that NKPC models are generally weakly identified. Applications using Canadian data show that all the considered versions of the NKPC have a forecasting performance that comfortably exceeds that of a random walk equation, and moreover, that some NKPC versions also significantly outperform forecasts from conventional time series models. We conclude that relying on single-equation structural models such as the NKPC is a viable option for policymakers for the purposes of both forecasting and being able to explain to the public structural factors underlying those forecasts.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 43, December 2014, Pages 183-191
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 43, December 2014, Pages 183-191
نویسندگان
Maral Kichian, Fabio Rumler,