The selection of technology for late-starters: A case study of the energy-smart photovoltaic industry

- This study proposes a technology selection process integrating fuzzy AHP and Delphi method.
- The Delphi method provides the six main alternatives for the future photovoltaic industry.
- The core technology fields can be identified through the two-way linkage.
- The results show that benefit of a technology is the most important factor.

Technology selection, which influences the competitive advantages of an enterprise or a country, is a multi-criteria decision issue. In addition, it is increasingly difficult to identify the right technologies because technologies are increasing in number and complexity. This study proposes a technology selection process integrating the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Delphi method. The former effectively conducts the fuzziness existing in experts' responses and identifies the strength of technology selection criteria and the relationship between the two. The latter provides the main technology alternatives for Taiwan's future photovoltaic industry. Finally, through the two-way linkage between technology selection criteria and main industrial technologies, the technology fields of the photovoltaic industry can be identified. The empirical results indicate that the benefit of a technology is the most important factor among technological selection criteria, and that Taiwan should adopt and develop microcrystalline silicon film multi-junction and amorphous-silicon solar cells as its main industrial technologies. The results may serve to guide industrial technology acquisition and the work of resource allocations on the behalf of government and enterprises.