کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5054748 1476538 2013 7 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Oil prices and the macroeconomy reconsideration for Germany: Using continuous wavelet
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
قیمت نفت و تجدید نظر در اقتصاد کلان برای آلمان: با استفاده از موجک پیوسته
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی

The cross wavelet analysis is used in the study to decompose the time-frequency effects of oil price changes on the German macroeconomy. We argue that the relationship between oil prices and industrial production is ambiguous. Our results show that there are both phase and anti-phase relationships between oil price returns and inflation and in most of the cases inflation is the leading variable. Additional evidence shows that there is a huge inconsistency between the phase-difference of the return series of oil price and industrial production at the 12-16 month frequency bands but at the 16-24 month frequency bands, we find that oil price changes that have occurred during 1982-2009 were demand-driven. In a nutshell our results suggest that oil price changes that have occurred after 1994 were demand-driven and the volatility of the inflation rate started to decrease after the 1990s but the volatility of the industrial output growth rate started to decrease after the 2000s.

► We found that the relationship between oil prices and industrial production is ambiguous. ► There are phase and anti-phase relationships between oil price growth and inflation. ► Oil price changes that have occurred after 1994 were demand-driven. ► The volatility of the inflation rate started to decrease after the 1990s. ► The volatility of the industrial output growth rate started to decrease after the 2000s.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 30, January 2013, Pages 636-642
نویسندگان
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