کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5055031 | 1371481 | 2012 | 8 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
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چکیده انگلیسی
This paper deals with transition mechanisms through which financial market conditions affect real economic growth in the Euro area. The informational content of financial variables for predicting real economic growth is assessed, allowing for asymmetric responses to shocks. A nonlinear framework is developed based on a smooth transition model for which the effects of shocks can vary across business cycles when financial indicators modify both the endogenous and state variables. Global financial variables are shown to significantly affect real growth in the Euro area, particularly during periods of recession. Changes in stock market index and yield slope have asymmetric effects on real growth. In recessionary periods, the slope of the US yield curve does not have a significant impact on growth in the Euro area.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 29, Issue 3, May 2012, Pages 734-741
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 29, Issue 3, May 2012, Pages 734-741
نویسندگان
Mehdi Mili, Jean-Michel Sahut, Frédéric Teulon,