کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5055362 1371490 2011 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products
چکیده انگلیسی

This paper focuses on a systematic quantitative discussion of the short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on international trade in a two-stage framework. Firstly, procedures based on dummy variables are proposed to detect structural breaks, types and sizes of jumps caused by such events. Then we propose to apply a hierarchical CMS (Constant Market Share) model to all sub-periods determined by the detected change points to study the short- and long-term impact of those events on growth causes. Application to China-Germany trade in agri-food products shows that China's accession to WTO had a negative short-term impact on corresponding series. But its long-term impact on China's export competitiveness was clearly positive. The short-term impact of the EU's CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) reform on Germany's exports to China was also negative. Its long-term impact on export competitiveness was sometimes positive and sometimes negative. The financial crisis of 2008 caused a significant reduction of China's agri-food exports to Germany. But Germany's exports to China in 2009 were not affected by the financial crisis as much.

Research highlights►We discuss the impact of remarkable economic events on international trade. ►The short-term impact is quantified by structural break detection. ►The long-term impact is analyzed by a hierarchical Constant Market Share model. ►A remarkable event may have a negative short-term but a positive long-term impact.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 28, Issue 6, November 2011, Pages 2359-2368
نویسندگان
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