کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5055362 | 1371490 | 2011 | 10 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |

This paper focuses on a systematic quantitative discussion of the short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on international trade in a two-stage framework. Firstly, procedures based on dummy variables are proposed to detect structural breaks, types and sizes of jumps caused by such events. Then we propose to apply a hierarchical CMS (Constant Market Share) model to all sub-periods determined by the detected change points to study the short- and long-term impact of those events on growth causes. Application to China-Germany trade in agri-food products shows that China's accession to WTO had a negative short-term impact on corresponding series. But its long-term impact on China's export competitiveness was clearly positive. The short-term impact of the EU's CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) reform on Germany's exports to China was also negative. Its long-term impact on export competitiveness was sometimes positive and sometimes negative. The financial crisis of 2008 caused a significant reduction of China's agri-food exports to Germany. But Germany's exports to China in 2009 were not affected by the financial crisis as much.
Research highlightsâºWe discuss the impact of remarkable economic events on international trade. âºThe short-term impact is quantified by structural break detection. âºThe long-term impact is analyzed by a hierarchical Constant Market Share model. âºA remarkable event may have a negative short-term but a positive long-term impact.
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 28, Issue 6, November 2011, Pages 2359-2368