کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5055483 1371491 2011 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Currency equivalent monetary aggregates as leading indicators of inflation
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Currency equivalent monetary aggregates as leading indicators of inflation
چکیده انگلیسی

This study examines whether the Currency Equivalent (CE) Monetary Aggregates proposed by Hutt (1963) and Rotemberg et al. (1995) can perform better in predicting inflation as compared to their simple sum counterparts. The components of four official measures of monetary constructs - M1, M2, M3 and L1 - are used to construct monthly CE monetary aggregates for the period from April 1993 to June 2009. The empirical evidence indicates that the growth rate of CE aggregates has an edge over their sum counterparts in predicting inflation. Moreover, the predictive power of the growth rates of CE aggregates improves as the level of aggregation increases. These evidences suggest that observing the movements in the growth rates of weighted monetary aggregates can be a better option within the “multiple indicator approach” which is being currently practiced by the Reserve Bank of India.

Research Highlights► The study constructs CE aggregates for India. ► Examines whether CE aggregates performs better as leading indicators of inflation. ► The growth rates of CE aggregates are better predictor of inflation. ► The predictive power of CE aggregates improves as the level of aggregation increases.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 28, Issue 4, July 2011, Pages 2041-2048
نویسندگان
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