News on inflation and the epidemiology of inflation expectations in China

- We examine the epidemiological model of inflation expectations in China.
- We collect media data from 30 leading newspapers in China.
- We code news reports into three types of rising, falling, and unchanged.
- We find a fundamental connection between media and expectations.
- We highlight different impacts of news in different sources on expectations.

Inflation expectations are important elements in monetary policy analysis. This paper examines how inflation expectations of Chinese consumers and professional forecasters are affected by media sentiments based on the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model. Rather than assuming professional forecasts are identical to newspaper forecasts, we assume news media are a common source for the transmission of typical people's inflation expectations. We collect media data from 30 leading newspapers and magazines in China and code news reports into three types of inflation: rising, falling, and unchanged. More importantly, we categorize the media pool into comprehensive, economic, and politically oriented media sources. We find a fundamental connection between news media and inflation expectations. However, there are significantly different impacts of news reports in different media sources on expectations. The difference is mainly concentrated in politically oriented media sources, and may be a reflection of China's unique media administration system.