کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5057960 | 1476614 | 2016 | 4 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
- We consider the role of the quantity theory in improving inflation forecasts.
- We find that the cointegration-based quantity theory does not hold for the period after 1995 for the US data.
- That period is well explained by an adaptive quantity theory based on a functional-coefficient cointegration that adapts to the unemployment rate.
- The forecasting exercises show that the adaptive quantity theory has superior pre-dictive power for targeting future inflation.
This paper focuses on the role of the quantity theory in improving inflation forecasts. We find that the cointegration-based quantity theory does not hold for the period after 1995 for the U.S. data. However, that period is well explained by an adaptive quantity theory based on a functional-coefficient cointegration that adapts to the unemployment rate. The forecasting exercises show that the adaptive quantity theory has superior predictive power for targeting future inflation.
Journal: Economics Letters - Volume 149, December 2016, Pages 112-115