Exports, HIV incidence and the Baltic Dry Index: Further evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

- We estimate the effect that exports may have on HIV incidence for sub-Saharan African countries (SSAs).
- Our work attempts to address the possible issues of reverse causality and measurement error.
- To do so, we exploit the Baltic Dry Index to construct an instrument for SSAs' exports.
- We find that a doubling of exports per capita could increase HIV incidence by about 55% on average.

We estimate the effect of exports on HIV incidence for sub-Saharan African countries, using an instrument related to the Baltic Dry Index. We find that a doubling of exports per capita could increase HIV incidence by about 55% on average.