The finance and growth nexus revisited

- Credit expansion has a positive output growth effect only up to a point.
- Beyond the threshold the impact of finance on growth vanishes.
- The non-linearity may stem from the omission of factors not considered so far.
- The omitted factors may have negative growth effects in mature financial sectors.
- Such factors include financial cycles and banks' non-intermediation activities.

We find that an expansion of credit has a positive effect on per capita output growth only up to a point. Beyond this threshold the impact of finance on growth is not statistically significant anymore. We show, however, that the estimated non-linear relationship may stem from the omission of factors not considered in the literature so far. These factors may have a negative impact on growth in mature financial systems, and include the magnitude of financial cycles as well as the importance of non-intermediation activities in banks' business models.