Eliciting subjective probability distributions with binary lotteries

- We study belief elicitation over continuous events using scoring rules with incentives.
- Theory predicts that reported beliefs are minimally distorted by risk attitudes.
- We elicit beliefs in an experiment with a binary lottery procedure to induce risk neutrality.
- And we compare them against beliefs elicited with direct monetary payoffs.
- We find insignificant distortions of belief elicitation coming from risk attitudes.

We test in a laboratory experiment the theoretical prediction that risk attitudes have a surprisingly small role in distorting reports from true belief distributions. We find evidence consistent with theory in our experiment.