The labor demand was downward sloping: Disentangling migrants’ inflows and outflows, 1929–1957

This paper studies in- and out-migration from the U.S. during the first half of the twentieth century and assesses how these flows affected state-level labor markets. It shows that out-migration positively impacted the earnings growth of remaining workers, while in-migration had a negative impact. Hence, immigrant arrivals were substitutes of the existing workforce, while out-migration reduced the competitive pressure on labor markets.

► This paper disentangles the impact of migrants’ inflows and outflows on U.S. state-level earnings.
► It uses unexplored information on flows for the period 1929–1957.
► Results show that immigrant arrivals substituted the existing workforce.
► Conversely, out-migration reduced the competitive pressure on labor markets.