Are professional forecasts of growth in US business investment rational?

► We evaluate the survey forecasts of growth in US business investment for 1982-2009. ► We employ the ARMA (VAR) forecast as the “weak” (“stronger”) measure of rationality. ► We find that the survey forecasts generally encompass both the ARMA and VAR forecasts. ► Accordingly, the survey not only displays “weak” but also “stronger” rationality. ► The survey forecasts are also directionally accurate and imply symmetric loss.