Forecasting the adoption of residential ductless heat pumps

- The ductless heat pump (DHP) is an energy-efficient form of space conditioning.
- Rebate and marketing programs designed to increase adoptions of DHPs are examined.
- Residential adoption of DHPs is sensitive to rebates and tax credits.
- Advertising and training have a smaller effect on adoption than rebates.

Energy-efficient technologies have the potential to provide savings to households and utilities, but consumers do not always adopt these innovations over traditional technologies. The ductless heat pump (DHP) is one such technology designed to increase energy efficiency and comfort in space conditioning. DHP adoption by single-family residences in the Pacific Northwest of the United States is investigated by quantifying the effects of utility-provided rebates and expenditures on activities such as advertising and installer training on the number of installations and forecasting installations through 2018. The number of installations is elastic with respect to net installation costs and inelastic with respect to expenditures. Given the proposed rebate budgets, doubling the current rebate is necessary to maximize installations through 2018.