کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5065693 | 1372326 | 2009 | 8 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts: The DOE's energy price forecasts Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts: The DOE's energy price forecasts](/preview/png/5065693.png)
The United States Department of Energy's (DOE) quarterly price forecasts for energy commodities are examined to determine the incremental information provided at the one-through four-quarter forecast horizons. A direct test for determining information content at alternative forecast horizons, developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez [Vuchelen, J. and Gutierrez, M.-I. “A Direct Test of the Information Content of the OECD Growth Forecasts.” International Journal of Forecasting. 21(2005):103-117.], is used. The results suggest that the DOE's price forecasts for crude oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel do indeed provide incremental information out to three-quarters ahead, while natural gas and electricity forecasts are informative out to the four-quarter horizon. In contrast, the DOE's coal price forecasts at two-, three-, and four-quarters ahead provide no incremental information beyond that provided for the one-quarter horizon. Recommendations of how to use these results for making forecast adjustments is also provided.
Journal: Energy Economics - Volume 31, Issue 2, March 2009, Pages 189-196