Modelling industrial energy use: The IEAs Energy Technology Perspectives

The Energy Technology Perspectives model has been developed to study global energy efficiency and CO2 emission reduction potentials, particularly in the industrial sector. In a Baseline Scenario, industrial CO2 emissions (including the emissions in power generation from electricity used in industry) would rise by 82% between 2003 and 2050. In the Accelerated Technology scenario, where total global CO2 emissions in 2050 are 6% above 2003 levels, the industrial emissions would increase by only 21% during the same period. A mix of CO2 emission reduction incentives, efficiency regulations and support measures would be needed. A range of new technologies plays a role in this scenario. Further detailed analysis of the present efficiency and the characteristics of the capital stock is needed if the analysis is to be improved. The IEA G8 programme aims to develop such a detailed dataset, which could then also serve other modelling efforts.