Warlords, famine and food aid: Who fights, who starves?

- We study how the potential for looting aid affects warlords' recruitment decisions.
- Our model allows us to predict who will be recruited, who will receive aid, and who will die of famine in every circumstance.
- Aid agencies' amount of resources is a key determinant.

We examine the effects of famine relief efforts (food aid) in regions undergoing civil war. In our model, warlords seize a fraction of all aid. They hire their troops within a population with varied productivities or skills. We determine the equilibrium distribution of labor in this environment and study how the existence and allocation strategies of a benevolent food aid agency affect this equilibrium. Our model allows us to predict who will be recruited, who will receive aid, and who will die of famine in every circumstance.