کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5073018 1373528 2006 26 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Aggregating disparate estimates of chance
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Aggregating disparate estimates of chance
چکیده انگلیسی

We consider a panel of experts asked to assign probabilities to events, both logically simple and complex. The events evaluated by different experts are based on overlapping sets of variables but may otherwise be distinct. The union of all the judgments will likely be probabilistically incoherent. We address the problem of revising the probability estimates of the panel so as to produce a coherent set that best represents the group's expertise.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Games and Economic Behavior - Volume 56, Issue 1, July 2006, Pages 148-173
نویسندگان
, ,