The 'oil vulnerability' of commuter patterns: A case study from Yorkshire and the Humber, UK

- Concepts of 'commuter oil vulnerability' are considered.
- Four quantitative metrics are developed and applied to a regional case study.
- Results showed variable geographical and individual level vulnerabilities.
- Individual circumstances affect vulnerability, even in seeming 'resilient' zones.
- Ultimately, the distribution of oil vulnerability depends on visions of the future.

Motorised transport infrastructure and increasingly specialised labour markets have resulted in energy intensive commuter patterns in many parts of the world. This is cause for concern due to the possibility of oil price shocks and the need to restrict the combustion of fossil fuels to minimise the chances of runaway climate change. The paper investigates methods to identify the spatial distribution and socio-demographic profiles of those who are vulnerable to high oil prices. It does this by use of four metrics of oil vulnerability which were developed using a spatial microsimulation model and applied to the case study region of Yorkshire and the Humber, UK. The metrics capture different aspects of vulnerability and highlight the importance of translating conceptual definitions into practical metrics. The geographically aggregated results coincide with the literature: rural areas are associated with the highest levels of vulnerability. The individual level results indicate that vulnerability can be prevalent even in seemingly resilient areas. Ultimately, we conclude that the social and spatial distribution of oil vulnerability depends on how an energy-constrained future is envisioned. Creating localised metrics about the future is a challenging task fraught with danger but could, provided that these metrics are interpreted with sufficient humility, aid the development of equitable policies to encourage resilience, as part of a worldwide transition away from fossil fuels.