Finite-time survival probability and credit default swaps pricing under geometric Lévy markets

- Risk theory results are applied in credit risk modeling.
- We provide a closed-form pricing formula for a single-name credit default swap.
- We explain why par CDS credit spread is not negligible when maturity becomes short.

We study the first-passage time over a fixed threshold for a pure-jump subordinator with negative drift. We obtain a closed-form formula for its survival function in terms of marginal density functions of the subordinator. We then use this formula to calculate finite-time survival probabilities in a structural model for credit risk, and thus obtain a closed-form pricing formula for a single-name credit default swap (CDS). This pricing formula is well calibrated on market CDS quotes. In particular, it explains why the par CDS credit spread is not negligible when the maturity becomes short.