کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5077427 | 1374129 | 2010 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Paid-incurred chain claims reserving method
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موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
ریاضیات
آمار و احتمال
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
We present a novel stochastic model for claims reserving that allows us to combine claims payments and incurred losses information. The main idea is to combine two claims reserving models (Hertig's (1985) model and Gogol's (1993) model ) leading to a log-normal paid-incurred chain (PIC) model. Using a Bayesian point of view for the parameter modelling we derive in this Bayesian PIC model the full predictive distribution of the outstanding loss liabilities. On the one hand, this allows for an analytical calculation of the claims reserves and the corresponding conditional mean square error of prediction. On the other hand, simulation algorithms provide any other statistics and risk measure on these claims reserves.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Insurance: Mathematics and Economics - Volume 46, Issue 3, June 2010, Pages 568-579
Journal: Insurance: Mathematics and Economics - Volume 46, Issue 3, June 2010, Pages 568-579
نویسندگان
Michael Merz, Mario V. Wüthrich,