کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5077570 1374137 2007 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Predicting automobile claims bodily injury severity with sequential ordered logit models
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه ریاضیات آمار و احتمال
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Predicting automobile claims bodily injury severity with sequential ordered logit models
چکیده انگلیسی
Despite the large cost of bodily injury (BI) claims in motor insurance, relatively little research has been done in this area. Many companies estimate (and therefore reserve) bodily injury compensation directly from initial medical reports. This practice may underestimate the final cost, because the severity is often assessed during the recovery period. Since the evaluation of this severity is often only qualitative, in this paper we apply an ordered multiple choice model at different moments in the life of a claim reported to an insurance company. We assume that the information available to the insurer does not flow continuously, because it is obtained at different stages. Using a real data set, we show that the application of sequential ordered logit models leads to a significant improvement in the prediction of the BI severity level, compared to the subjective classification that is used in practice. We also show that these results could improve the insurer's reserves notably.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Insurance: Mathematics and Economics - Volume 41, Issue 1, July 2007, Pages 71-83
نویسندگان
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