A nonparametric study of real exchange rate persistence over a century

- This paper estimates the degree of persistence of long‐horizon real exchange rates.
- We use nonparametric operational algorithms for general nonlinear models.
- Our estimations are based on SMM and SMD properties.
- We report substantially shorter maximum half‐life (MHL) estimates than those from linear models.
- Our results are robust to the choice of bandwidth for kernel estimators.

This paper estimates the degree of persistence of 16 long-horizon real exchange rates relative to the US dollar. We use nonparametric operational algorithms by El-Gamal and Ryu (2006) for general nonlinear models based on two statistical notions: the short memory in mean (SMM) and the short memory in distribution (SMD). We found substantially shorter maximum half-life (MHL) estimates than the counterpart from linear models. Our results are robust to the choice of bandwidth with a few exceptions.