On the directional accuracy of forecasts of emerging market exchange rates

- We study survey data of forecasts of 18 emerging market exchange rates.
- We study the directional accuracy of forecasts using ROC-techniques.
- Forecasts are often informative with respect to directional changes of exchange rates.

We use survey data to study whether the exchange-rate forecasts made by professional forecasters are informative with respect to the direction of subsequent changes of (Asian, Eastern European, and South American) emerging market exchange rates. While results vary across exchange rates, we find that forecasts often contain information with respect to directional changes of exchange rates. We derive our empirical results using techniques developed to analyze relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves.