کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5083688 | 1477813 | 2014 | 20 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدیران خرید و عرضه، سرنخ های اولیه را در جهت اقتصاد ایالات متحده ارائه می دهند: کاربرد یک آزمایش جدید در بازار زمان
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی
We evaluate the directional accuracy of Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indices in predicting the direction of the US economy direction; to do so, we make use of a method developed by Pesaran and Timmermann (2009). By illustrating an application of the new market-timing test and extending it to a joint evaluation of increase/decrease and acceleration/deceleration, we show that while the ISM indices are useful predictors of industrial production and employment with regard to monthly economic activity and to business cycle expansion/recession, they are not useful predictors of real gross domestic product or hours worked. Our findings suggest that the ISM indices broadly provide early qualitative information on the US economy. Our findings also suggest that the importance of the nonmanufacturing sector becomes clear when examining business cycles in the U.S.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Review of Economics & Finance - Volume 29, January 2014, Pages 599-618
Journal: International Review of Economics & Finance - Volume 29, January 2014, Pages 599-618
نویسندگان
Yoichi Tsuchiya,