How much informal credit lending responded to monetary policy in China? The case of Wenzhou

- Wenzhou's informal credit market is dominantly demand driven.
- The market is complementary to excessive investments in the local estate market.
- The market lending rates are highly receptive to the monetary policies.
- The total lending of the market is substitutive to bank savings in the short run.
- The total lending is also complementary to banking lending in the long run.

This study investigates empirically what the major factors are which have driven Wenzhou's informal credit market and how much that market is responsive to monetary policies and the formal banking conditions nationwide. A number of relatively stable factors have been identified from this volatile market through a careful exploration of a monthly survey data set for the period of 2003-2011. The main findings are: (i) Wenzhou's informal credit lending rates are highly receptive to monetary policies; (ii) Wenzhou's market is dominantly demand driven; (iii) Wenzhou's informal lending is substitutive to bank savings in the short run but complementary to banking lending in the long run; and (iv) Wenzhou's market is complementary to excessive investments in the local real estate market.