کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5089943 | 1375611 | 2011 | 10 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A cyclical model of exchange rate volatility
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
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چکیده انگلیسی
In this paper, we investigate the long run dynamics of the intraday range of the GBP/USD, JPY/USD and CHF/USD exchange rates. We use a non-parametric filter to extract the low frequency component of the intraday range, and model the cyclical deviation of the range from the long run trend as a stationary autoregressive process. We use the cyclical volatility model to generate out-of-sample forecasts of exchange rate volatility for horizons of up to 1Â year under the assumption that the long run trend is fully persistent. As a benchmark, we compare the forecasts of the cyclical volatility model with those of the range-based EGARCH and FIEGARCH models of Brandt and Jones (2006). Not only does the cyclical volatility model provide a very substantial computational advantage over the EGARCH and FIEGARCH models, but it also offers an improvement in out-of-sample forecast performance.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance - Volume 35, Issue 11, November 2011, Pages 3055-3064
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance - Volume 35, Issue 11, November 2011, Pages 3055-3064
نویسندگان
Richard D.F. Harris, Evarist Stoja, Fatih Yilmaz,