کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5090971 | 1375654 | 2007 | 18 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns? Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?](/preview/png/5090971.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
This paper merges the literature on technical trading rules with the literature on Markov switching to develop economically useful trading rules. The Markov models' out-of-sample, excess returns modestly exceed those of standard technical rules and are profitable over the most recent subsample. A portfolio of Markov and standard technical rules outperforms either set individually, on a risk-adjusted basis. The Markov rules' high excess returns contrast with mixed performance on statistical tests of forecast accuracy. There is no clear source for the trends, but permitting the mean to depend on higher moments of the exchange rate distribution modestly increases returns.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance - Volume 31, Issue 2, February 2007, Pages 279-296
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance - Volume 31, Issue 2, February 2007, Pages 279-296
نویسندگان
Michael Dueker, Christopher J. Neely,