Rational dictators and the killing of innocents: Data from Stalin's archives

► This paper uses data from the Soviet state and party archives to examine the “rationality” of Stalin's repression campaigns. ► We use an eliminations model that posits the dictator eliminates enemies when the number of enemies approaches a revolution constraint. ► The number of eliminations depends positively on the number of enemies and the dictator's control and varies negatively with the quality of information about enemies. ► We apply this model to Stalin's three major repression campaigns: collectivization (1930-1932), mass operations (1937-1938), and national operations (1937-1945). ► Application of the model to the three repression campaigns demonstrates that the greatest number of “innocent” victims were repressed when the information about enemies was poorest.