کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5099276 | 1376997 | 2007 | 33 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Optimal monetary policy in a micro-founded model with parameter uncertainty
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
ریاضیات
کنترل و بهینه سازی
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چکیده انگلیسی
In this paper, we structurally model uncertainty with a micro-founded model, and investigate its implications for optimal monetary policy. Uncertainty about deep parameters of the model implies that the central bank simultaneously faces both uncertainty about the structural dynamic equations and about the social loss function. Considering both uncertainties with cross-parameter restrictions based on the micro-foundations of the model, we use Bayesian methods to determine the optimal monetary policy that minimizes the expected loss. Our analysis shows how uncertainty can lead the central bank to pursue a more aggressive monetary policy, overturning Brainard's common wisdom. As the degree of uncertainty about inflation dynamics increases, the central bank should place much more weight on price stability, and should respond to shocks more aggressively. We also show that combining a more aggressive policy response with a highly inertial interest rate policy reduces Bayesian risk.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control - Volume 31, Issue 2, February 2007, Pages 399-431
Journal: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control - Volume 31, Issue 2, February 2007, Pages 399-431
نویسندگان
Takeshi Kimura, Takushi Kurozumi,