کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5099319 | 1376999 | 2011 | 27 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
ریاضیات
کنترل و بهینه سازی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
This paper undertakes a Bayesian analysis of optimal monetary policy for the U.K. We estimate a suite of monetary-policy models that include both forward- and backward-looking representations as well as large- and small-scale models. We find an optimal simple Taylor-type rule that accounts for both model and parameter uncertainty. For the most part, backward-looking models are highly fault tolerant with respect to policies optimized for forward-looking representations, while forward-looking models have low fault tolerance with respect to policies optimized for backward-looking representations. In addition, backward-looking models often have lower posterior probabilities than forward-looking models. Bayesian policies therefore have characteristics suitable for inflation and output stabilization in forward-looking models.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control - Volume 35, Issue 12, December 2011, Pages 2186-2212
Journal: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control - Volume 35, Issue 12, December 2011, Pages 2186-2212
نویسندگان
Timothy Cogley, Bianca De Paoli, Christian Matthes, Kalin Nikolov, Tony Yates,